More Than 43 Million Americans Have Already Voted as Texas Early Voting Ends
More than 43 million Americans had already cast a ballot in the 2026 midterm elections by Thursday, October 29, according to data compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab — and in Texas, the state driving the surge, in-person early voting ended on Friday, October 30.
The national total is already more than a third of the roughly 122 million people who voted in the 2022 midterms, with four days still to go before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3. But the headline number needs careful reading: it measures how many people have voted, not how they voted — and the final result will still depend on who turns out on Election Day itself.
What happened
The Election Lab, run by Professor Michael McDonald, compiles official state figures on early and mail ballots. Its count climbed from about 23 million on October 24 to more than 43 million by Thursday, October 29, with four to five million early votes landing each day — a faster daily pace than in most previous election cycles.
An earlier snapshot from October 25, covering 47 states, showed 27.7 million votes: 13.5 million cast in person and 14.2 million by mail. Since then the in-person share has grown, a pattern McDonald has noted across this cycle: voters are increasingly choosing to vote in person even when they vote early, and they are returning their ballots earlier than in previous elections.
Texas is at the centre of the story. The BBC’s later count put the state’s total above 5.8 million ballots, around 1.75 million more than its entire early-voting total in 2022. An earlier Texas Secretary of State figure, reported by local outlets, put the total at 5.5 million, or about 29 per cent of the state’s roughly 19 million registered voters. The two figures are not a contradiction — they are snapshots taken at different reporting cut-offs as county totals kept arriving — but either way, Texas has already blown past its last midterm’s early vote.
The numbers in context
Early ballots cast nationally by Oct 29: More than 43 million (University of Florida Election Lab).
Early ballots cast nationally by Oct 24: About 23 million.
Daily pace in the final week: 4-5 million per day.
Total votes cast in the 2022 midterms: Roughly 122 million (for comparison, not an early-vote figure).
Texas early ballots (later count): Above 5.8 million (BBC, citing the Election Lab).
Texas early ballots (earlier count): 5.5 million, about 29% of registered voters (Texas Secretary of State, via local reports).
Texas lead over its 2022 early total: Around 1.75 million ballots.
Texas in-person early voting window: October 19-30 (closed Friday, October 30).
Overall turnout, McDonald has said, appears on track to outpace 2020 and possibly even 2018, which recorded the highest turnout rate for a midterm election since 1914. That is a statement about the pace so far, not a prediction of the final total — Election Day voting has yet to happen, and mail ballots postmarked by the deadline will still be arriving.
Texas: the state driving the surge
Texas has posted the highest above-average turnout rate in the country so far, and the county figures explain why the state total moved so fast.
Dallas County set a single-day record for early voting on day one of any election, with more than 88,000 ballots cast. Hidalgo County recorded approximately 113,000 early votes, about 24 per cent of its registered voters, while Cameron County logged around 54,000, about 22 per cent. In Tarrant County, more than 50,000 ballots were cast on day one alone — a surge of about 21,000 compared with the first day of the 2022 midterms.
The contest drawing much of that attention is the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, a result that could affect control of the Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency. The high stakes are also visible in the campaign trail: Barack Obama campaigned in Ohio and Michigan in the final stretch, while Donald Trump cancelled weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa — a reminder that both parties are still fighting for the voters who have not yet cast a ballot.
In Texas, Friday, October 30 was the final day of in-person early voting. There is no voting in Texas on Saturday, Sunday or Monday. On Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, polls are open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm local time, and voters in many jurisdictions must report to their assigned precinct rather than voting anywhere in their county, as they could during early voting.
Records are falling elsewhere too. On Thursday, the city of Minneapolis said it had set an early-voting record for a non-presidential election.
Who is voting early — and what it does not prove
In the roughly half of states that record party affiliation, Thursday’s figures showed 44 per cent of early ballots cast by registered Democrats, 31.2 per cent by registered Republicans, and 24.7 per cent by voters with no party affiliation. The Democratic lead in that subset is real, but it does not settle the election, for three reasons.
First, party registration is not a vote. In Texas, voters do not register by party at all, and everywhere else the figures show the party a voter registered with, not the candidate they chose. Second, early electorates and Election Day electorates have different habits: Democrats have generally been more likely to vote early in recent cycles, while Republicans have been more likely to vote on Election Day itself — a pattern McDonald has warned makes the early count a poor predictor of the final result. Third, the party split covers only the states that collect the data, so it is not a national vote share.
The demographic detail points the same way. In the three states that record race at registration — North Carolina, Georgia and Florida — turnout is up among Hispanic and Black voters, while voting among white voters is roughly on par with 2022. In Texas, which records neither party nor race, the surge is visible in border counties that are more than 90 per cent Hispanic, some of which McDonald expects to beat their entire 2022 turnout in the early vote alone. That fits a broader pattern in which communities of colour, who more often vote Democratic, are voting early in larger numbers — but, again, participation is not the same as a counted vote for any candidate.
The same caution applies to the final-days campaign debate in Texas. Wait times at most Austin-area early-voting locations were down on Wednesday, and local analysts have asked whether the surge is over or simply pausing before a Friday dash. If the big surge is over, the question becomes whether Republican voters, who have historically voted later, start to close the gap — the political ebb and flow that has happened in past elections.
Why early voting has boomed
Early voting has grown sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic, when more states expanded early and mail options. In the 2020 presidential election, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, and half of those early votes were cast by mail.
This cycle, voters are returning ballots earlier and leaning more toward in-person early voting. McDonald has suggested one possible reason is concern about postal voting — postal votes are more likely to be disqualified for errors, and some voters may worry about interference with the US Postal Service — but he has stressed there is no data proving what is driving the shift.
Whatever the cause, the practical effect on campaigns is clear. With tens of millions of votes already banked, parties are narrowing their final outreach to the voters who have not yet participated, rather than trying to reach the whole electorate at once.
What happens next
Early voting will taper off in the coming days as states close their early-voting windows ahead of November 3. The final picture will only emerge after Election Day votes are counted and mail ballots that meet state deadlines are processed — a process whose speed varies by state, since states differ on when early votes can be counted and reported.
Voters who have not yet cast a ballot should check their own state’s deadline and polling-place rules rather than assuming the Texas dates apply nationally: Texas early voting is now closed, but other states’ windows close on different days, and Election Day itself is Tuesday, November 3, across the country.
One thing is already certain. More than 43 million Americans have voted before Election Day in a midterm election — a total that would have been unthinkable a decade ago, and a sign of how permanently early voting has changed American elections, whatever the final result on November 3.
Timeline
- October 19, 2026: In-person early voting opens in Texas.
- October 24, 2026: National early-vote total reaches about 23 million, per the University of Florida Election Lab.
- October 25, 2026: Election Lab snapshot of 47 states shows 27.7 million votes — 13.5 million in person, 14.2 million by mail.
- October 28, 2026: National total passes 40.5 million; Texas reports more than 5.5 million early votes to the Secretary of State.
- October 29, 2026: National total passes 43 million; Texas total put above 5.8 million, about 1.75 million past its 2022 early total; Minneapolis sets a non-presidential early-voting record.
- October 30, 2026: Final day of in-person early voting in Texas; no voting in Texas on Saturday, Sunday or Monday.
- November 3, 2026: Election Day — polls open 7:00 am to 7:00 pm local time in Texas; all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot nationally.
Frequently asked questions
Why have so many Americans voted early in the 2026 midterms? More than 43 million by Thursday, October 29, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, which compiles official state figures. The total was climbing by four to five million ballots a day in the final week.
When does early voting end in Texas? In-person early voting in Texas ended on Friday, October 30. There is no voting in Texas on Saturday, Sunday or Monday, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, with polls open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm local time.
How many Texans voted early? More than 5.5 million according to the Texas Secretary of State’s earlier count, and above 5.8 million in the BBC’s later count based on Election Lab data — about 1.75 million more than Texas’s entire early-voting total in 2022. The difference reflects different reporting cut-offs, not conflicting totals.
Do the early-vote figures show who is winning? No. Party registration figures show the party a voter registered with, not the candidate they voted for, and they cover only the states that record party affiliation. Democrats have tended to vote early and Republicans on Election Day in recent cycles, so the early electorate is not a representative sample of the final electorate.
What is at stake on November 3? All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot. The results will determine which party controls Congress for the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s presidency — a contest already shaped by the Justice Department’s California ballot order and the wider election-integrity debate.
Where can I follow the latest US election news? You can follow the latest developments in our US News section, including the final days of campaigning and the count after Election Day.