A new weather system over the Bay of Bengal is forecast to become Cyclone Murasu and reach the south Andhra Pradesh coast on the morning of Tuesday, November 3, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday, October 31. The warning comes only days after Cyclone Arnab struck the same coastline, and while the new storm is expected to be weaker than Arnab, it threatens heavy rain for coastal Andhra Pradesh and for southern Odisha districts still recovering from floods and landslides.
What happened
The IMD said on Saturday that a depression had formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal. The system was expected to become a deep depression within 12 hours, strengthen into a cyclonic storm on November 1 and then into a severe cyclonic storm by November 2, before approaching the south Andhra Pradesh coast. As of Saturday evening, the depression was centred about 960 kilometres east-southeast of Chennai, 980 kilometres southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,030 kilometres southeast of Machilipatnam, and was moving west-northwestwards at about 30 km/h. The IMD’s expected track takes it to the west-central Bay of Bengal near the south Andhra Pradesh coast by the early hours of November 3, crossing the coast between Nellore and Narsapur in the morning. That landfall stretch is the current forecast, not a fixed point. The IMD has said a more precise location and timing will follow in fresh bulletins as the system develops, so coastal residents should follow the next updates rather than treating one district as confirmed.
Why it will be called Murasu
If — and only if — the depression intensifies into a cyclonic storm as forecast, it will be named Murasu, a name contributed by India to the North Indian Ocean cyclone list. Until that threshold is reached, it remains a depression, not yet a named cyclone. Murasu would be the second cyclonic storm to form over the Bay of Bengal this year, after Arnab. The comparison matters because the two storms are arriving days apart over overlapping states, but they are not the same event, and the new storm is not a continuation of Arnab.
How strong will it be?
Forecast strength figures changed during Saturday, and readers should be aware of both versions. In briefings carried on Saturday, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra put the expected winds at 80 to 90 km/h, gusting to 100 km/h — weaker than Arnab at the time of its approach to the coast. A later Saturday-evening bulletin raised the expected peak, forecasting that the system would strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm with winds of 100 to 110 km/h, gusting to 120 km/h, as it crosses the coast. The difference reflects an evolving forecast for a system still days from landfall, not two different storms. Either way, the forecast peak remains below Arnab’s reported sustained winds of around 130 km/h. Rainfall, rather than wind alone, is a major part of the threat. The IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on November 2 and 3, with isolated extremely heavy falls, and heavy rainfall in southern Odisha on November 3 and 4.
What it means for Andhra Pradesh
Coastal Andhra Pradesh faces the direct track: strong winds, very heavy rain on November 2 and 3, and rough seas. Squally winds are expected along and off the coast as the system approaches, and sea conditions in the Bay of Bengal are forecast to turn dangerous well before landfall. Fishermen have been given the clearest instruction in the IMD warning. They have been advised not to venture into the sea until at least Wednesday afternoon, and those already at sea have been asked to return to harbour. Mohapatra warned that from November 1 onwards, the west-central Bay of Bengal, the southeast Bay of Bengal and parts of the central Bay of Bengal would be, in his words, ‘disastrous or devastating for any boats, small boats or small ships’, which should avoid the area. No evacuation figures for Murasu have been announced in the reports checked for this article, and none are claimed here. District administrations in Andhra Pradesh will issue their own evacuation and shelter decisions as the track firms up, and those local orders — not this forecast article — are the ones residents should follow.
What it means for Odisha
Odisha is not on the forecast direct landfall track, but it is far from unaffected — and its starting point is worse, because it is still dealing with Arnab. IMD Bhubaneswar director Manorama Mohanty said Odisha could face a relatively lesser impact because the projected path lies further south, towards Andhra Pradesh, but warned that fresh rain could hamper ongoing relief and repair operations. The warnings already issued for Odisha show that risk in stages. A yellow warning for heavy rain covers Ganjam and Gajapati districts on Monday, both still recovering from severe flooding triggered by Arnab. An orange warning for heavy to very heavy rain then covers Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri on Tuesday, with Khurda, Puri, Nabarangpur and Kalahandi under a yellow warning for heavy rain. Along the south Odisha coast, squally winds of 40 to 50 km/h, gusting to 60 km/h, are likely from the evening of November 2, rising to 50 to 60 km/h, gusting to 70 km/h, from early November 3 before weakening. Sea conditions off the south Odisha coast are expected to stay rough to very rough from the evening of November 2 to the afternoon of November 4, and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the northwest Bay of Bengal and the south Odisha coast during that period.
Odisha’s response while Arnab relief continues
Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed the situation at the Special Relief Commissioner’s office on Saturday and directed all departments to stay alert, with evacuation arrangements, cyclone shelters, food, drinking water and medicines ready. He also ordered restoration of electricity, roads and other essential services in Arnab-hit areas on a war footing, and told agencies to give top priority to locating missing people and to act swiftly on verified reports. Rescue work from Arnab is still under way. The National Disaster Response Force, the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force, fire services, the Special Operations Group and the Indian Navy are involved in the joint effort, and an advanced Seismic Life Detection Unit from the Navy, capable of detecting signs of life beneath soil and debris, was being airlifted to the G Udayagiri landslide site in Kandhamal district, where people are feared trapped. The human cost of Arnab in Odisha reported on Saturday underlines why a second rain event matters. The body of a 20-year-old missing man was recovered from the Mahendratanaya river at Alarsingh in Rayagada block on Friday evening, taking the reported toll in the state to four, including three people earlier reported dead in a landslide in Kandhamal district. Twelve people remain missing in Ganjam district, according to the same report.
Why this matters
Two cyclones in quick succession strain the same systems: shelters, power restoration, road clearance, crop recovery and the people staffing them. A storm that is weaker than Arnab can still cause serious damage if it drops very heavy rain on ground that is already saturated and on districts where relief work is unfinished. There is also a wider context worth noting. Cyclone Arnab made landfall in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on October 28, and Odisha was already on high alert for the October 28 landfall before Arnab arrived. The new system is therefore arriving not as an isolated forecast but as the second test of the same coastline in less than a week. For the country as a whole, the IMD has kept a drier-than-usual outlook for November despite the back-to-back systems. Rainfall in South Peninsular India is expected to stay below normal, at less than 77 percent of the long-period average, with most of the country also below normal except parts of central, northwest and northeast India. Day and night temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most regions, strong El Niño conditions are expected to persist, and the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to stay neutral. The southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire country around October 14 to 15, and the northeast monsoon set in on October 15 over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala-Mahe, where it has been normal to above normal since.
Timeline
- October 28: Cyclone Arnab crosses the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts as a very severe cyclonic storm, with sustained winds of around 130 km/h.
- October 31, morning: A depression forms over the southeast Bay of Bengal.
- October 31, evening: The depression sits about 960 km east-southeast of Chennai and 980 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, moving west-northwestwards at about 30 km/h.
- Within 12 hours: The system is expected to become a deep depression.
- November 1: The system is forecast to strengthen into a cyclonic storm, when it would be named Murasu.
- November 2: The system is forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm and reach the west-central Bay of Bengal near the south Andhra Pradesh coast; very heavy rain begins in Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
- November 3, morning: The system is expected to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur.
- November 3 to 4: Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast for southern Odisha.
- Until at least Wednesday afternoon: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Bay of Bengal.
What happens next
The next IMD bulletins are the ones that matter most. They will confirm whether the depression has become a deep depression and then a cyclonic storm, narrow the landfall point inside the Nellore–Narsapur stretch, and firm up the wind and rainfall figures. State and district authorities will then decide on evacuations, shelter openings and transport restrictions. Until those orders appear, the safest steps for coastal residents are to track IMD and district updates, keep phones charged, secure loose items, avoid the seafront, and not spread unverified landfall claims on social media.
FAQs
What is Cyclone Murasu? Murasu is the name that will be given to the Bay of Bengal depression if it strengthens into a cyclonic storm as forecast. The name was contributed by India. It is a new system, not a renaming of Cyclone Arnab.
When and where will Cyclone Murasu make landfall? The IMD forecast on Saturday, October 31, puts landfall on the morning of Tuesday, November 3, along the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur. The exact point has not yet been fixed and may be revised in later bulletins.
How strong will Cyclone Murasu be? Early Saturday briefings quoted winds of 80 to 90 km/h, gusting to 100 km/h. A later Saturday-evening bulletin forecast a severe cyclonic storm peak of 100 to 110 km/h, gusting to 120 km/h. Both figures are forecasts for a system still developing, and both remain below Arnab’s reported winds of around 130 km/h.
Will Odisha be hit by Cyclone Murasu? Odisha is not on the forecast direct landfall track, but southern Odisha is forecast to receive heavy to very heavy rain on November 3 and 4, with an orange warning for Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri on Tuesday. Fresh rain is a particular concern because Arnab relief and repair work is still under way there.
Is Cyclone Murasu stronger than Cyclone Arnab? No, on the forecasts available on Saturday. Arnab crossed the coast as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of around 130 km/h, while Murasu is forecast to peak at severe cyclonic storm strength at most. That does not make Murasu harmless: very heavy rain on saturated ground can still cause flooding and disruption.
What should fishermen and coastal residents do? Fishermen should not venture into the Bay of Bengal until at least Wednesday afternoon, and those at sea should return to harbour. Coastal residents should follow IMD bulletins and district administration orders, avoid the seafront during the warning period, and prepare for heavy rain, strong winds and possible power and transport disruption.
Related coverage
Cyclone Arnab made landfall in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on October 28, and Odisha was already on high alert for the October 28 landfall in the days before it arrived. Readers can follow more weather and India news in the World section.