A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclone Arnab early on Monday, October 26, 2026, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southern Odisha. The storm is expected to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on Monday and into a very severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday, before crossing the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts on the morning of October 28.
The IMD says landfall is most likely between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour and gusts reaching up to 140 kilometres per hour. Both states are now moving from watchfulness to active preparation, with evacuations, disaster teams and emergency controls being put in place before the worst weather arrives.
What happened
The IMD bulletin issued on Monday morning said the deep depression over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved nearly westwards at 15 kilometres per hour over six hours and intensified into Cyclone Arnab, pronounced Ornab. At 5:30 am IST on October 26, the storm was centred over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, near latitude 15.4 degrees north and longitude 88.9 degrees east.
At that time, Arnab was about 610 kilometres southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha, 650 kilometres east-southeast of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, 730 kilometres east-southeast of Kakinada, 830 kilometres east of Machilipatnam and 910 kilometres east of Bapatla. It was also about 590 kilometres northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands.
The storm is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further over the west-central Bay of Bengal. The forecast track then turns northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, which is why the red alert covers coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southern Odisha, even though landfall itself is forecast for the Andhra coast.
Odisha was already on high alert from the earlier cyclone warning, and that earlier alert is covered in our report on the Bay of Bengal cyclone heading for an October 28 landfall. Monday’s update changes the picture in an important way: the system now has a name, a measured position, a red alert, and a much clearer intensification timetable.
IMD track and landfall forecast
Cyclone Arnab forms early Monday, October 26, as a cyclonic storm moving west at 15 kmph. By midnight, October 26, it is forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal. On October 27, it is forecast to become a very severe cyclonic storm. Landfall is forecast for the forenoon of October 28, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with 115-125 kmph sustained winds, gusting to 140 kmph.
The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall for coastal districts of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha through October 29. Sea conditions are expected to deteriorate as the storm approaches, and fishing operations have been told to stay suspended in the affected areas.
Why it matters
A very severe cyclonic storm is not only a wind event. The main risks are usually a combination of sustained high winds, intense rainfall over a short period, localised flooding in low-lying areas, damage to weak structures, power disruption and disruption to transport.
That is why the preparations reported on Monday are focused on people before property: identifying vulnerable residents, moving them early, keeping hospitals and power systems ready, and giving district administrations a clear, regularly updated forecast to work from. The experience of recent storms, including Storm Boelo in Scotland, where high winds and flooding caused a death and widespread power cuts, is a reminder that the hours before landfall are when most of the life-saving work has to be done.
The red alert is the IMD’s highest warning level for this kind of event. It does not mean landfall is certain at one exact town, but it does mean authorities and residents in the warned districts should treat the forecast as serious and follow official evacuation and safety instructions rather than waiting for the storm to arrive.
Andhra Pradesh preparations
In Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has reviewed evacuation and relief preparations. Officials have been asked to issue cyclone bulletins every four hours so that the administration and the public get regular updates on the storm’s movement and intensity.
The state has identified about 570,000 people as vulnerable, and evacuations were due to start on Monday evening. Officials have also been asked to shift pregnant women out of hospitals over the coming week in advance, as a precaution against disruption during the storm.
Disaster response teams are being deployed. Reports on Monday said 10 teams of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and 11 teams of the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) are being deployed. The state’s energy chief secretary has also directed power utilities to implement emergency preparedness measures on a war footing, so that restoration work can begin quickly after the storm passes.
Odisha preparations
Odisha has also stepped up its preparedness as Cyclone Arnab intensifies. The state government has deputed eight ministers to vulnerable districts ahead of the approaching storm, so that district-level preparations can be monitored directly.
Odisha has cancelled the holidays of all agriculture officials and issued a high alert from October 25 to November 7. That longer alert window reflects the uncertainty that remains even after a forecast track is issued: rainfall, wind and sea conditions can affect districts beyond the immediate landfall corridor, and the system may weaken only after it moves inland.
Coastal districts of south Odisha are under heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings through October 29, and the same advice applies there as in Andhra Pradesh: follow district administration instructions, avoid the coast and fishing activity, and do not travel into warned areas unless it is essential.
What to watch next
The next two IMD bulletins will be the most important. The first will confirm whether Arnab has become a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on Monday, as forecast. The second, on Tuesday, will show whether it has strengthened further into a very severe cyclonic storm, and whether the landfall corridor between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam is still the most likely track.
Residents should watch for four things in particular: any shift in the forecast landfall point, any change in the forecast wind speed, evacuation orders for their district, and rainfall warnings for October 28 and 29. A small shift in track can change which districts face the strongest winds, even if the overall landfall date stays the same.
Timeline
Early Monday, October 26, 2026: Deep depression intensifies into Cyclone Arnab over the Bay of Bengal; IMD issues a red alert for coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southern Odisha.
5:30 am IST, October 26: Arnab centred near 15.4 degrees north, 88.9 degrees east, about 650 kilometres east-southeast of Visakhapatnam.
Monday evening, October 26: Evacuations due to start in Andhra Pradesh for about 570,000 vulnerable people.
By midnight, October 26: Forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal.
October 27: Forecast to become a very severe cyclonic storm.
Forenoon, October 28: Forecast landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with winds of 115-125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph.
Through October 29: Heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings remain in place for coastal north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha.
Frequently asked questions
What is Cyclone Arnab? Cyclone Arnab, pronounced Ornab, is a cyclonic storm that formed over the Bay of Bengal early on Monday, October 26, 2026, after a deep depression intensified. It is forecast to become a very severe cyclonic storm before landfall.
When will Cyclone Arnab make landfall? The IMD forecasts landfall on the morning of October 28, 2026, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts.
How strong will Cyclone Arnab be at landfall? Maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour are forecast, with gusts reaching up to 140 kilometres per hour.
Which states are on alert? Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southern Odisha are under a red alert, with heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings through October 29. Odisha has also issued a high alert from October 25 to November 7.
Is Cyclone Arnab the same storm as the earlier Odisha cyclone warning? Yes, in the sense that it is the same Bay of Bengal system that was already under watch. Monday’s update is new because the storm has now been named, its position has been measured, a red alert has been issued, and evacuation and disaster-team deployments have begun.
What should residents in the warned districts do? Follow official district administration and IMD instructions, follow evacuation orders promptly, avoid coastal areas and fishing activity, keep emergency supplies ready, and check for cyclone bulletins every four hours in Andhra Pradesh.
The situation remains fluid, and the forecast track may still shift. The safest approach for anyone in the warned districts is to treat Monday’s red alert as the start of preparations, not as a reason to wait until Wednesday morning.
For more on how disaster warnings work in practice, our report on the Vanuatu earthquake and tsunami warning shows how quickly a warning can be issued and then lifted when the threat passes.
For the latest on this storm and other major stories, see the World section.